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{"id":5966,"date":"2024-12-19T17:51:05","date_gmt":"2024-12-19T16:51:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=5966"},"modified":"2024-12-19T17:51:05","modified_gmt":"2024-12-19T16:51:05","slug":"the-budget-problems-of-the-new-french-government","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dev25.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/12\/19\/the-budget-problems-of-the-new-french-government\/","title":{"rendered":"The budget problems of the new French government"},"content":{"rendered":"
The June 2024 election in France resulted in a fragmented political landscape dominated by populist movements on the left and right. With competing economic visions and unsustainable spending plans, public finances face increasing pressure, exacerbated by weak economic growth, rising deficits, and mounting debt. The fragile coalition government under Prime Minister Michel Barnier struggles to stabilize the fiscal trajectory amid political and EU pressures.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n
The dissolution of the French National Assembly by President Macron in June 2024 created an unprecedented political scenario. Two populist parties\u2014the far-left <\/span>France Insoumise<\/span><\/i> led by Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon and the far-right <\/span>Rassemblement National<\/span><\/i> (RN) led by Marine Le Pen\u2014emerged with significant influence. Together, they now hold a majority of votes, reshaping France’s political landscape.<\/span><\/p>\n
The Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), an alliance between <\/span>France Insoumise<\/span><\/i> and dissident socialists, secured 178 deputies, while the RN holds 125, combining for 303 seats in the 577-seat Assembly. This unprecedented balance of power pits radically opposing economic platforms against one another, deepening political divisions.<\/span><\/p>\n
The Nouveau Front Populaire advocates for a robust, left-leaning economic transformation. Key proposals include increasing the minimum wage, reforming the tax system to make it more progressive, and massively expanding public services like education and healthcare. The NFP also calls for nationalizing strategic sectors\u2014including energy and transportation\u2014and reducing job insecurity by lowering the legal workweek to 32 hours and reinstating retirement at 60.<\/span><\/p>\n
Conversely, the <\/span>Rassemblement National<\/span><\/i> promotes a protectionist and nationalist agenda. Their program prioritizes French nationals for jobs and social benefits, cuts taxes for the middle class, and bolsters small businesses. The RN similarly supports reindustrialization through business relocation, trade restrictions, and border controls to reduce immigration.<\/span><\/p>\n
While these programs reflect opposing ideological principles\u2014state-driven redistribution versus protectionist nationalism\u2014both share a reliance on increased public spending. Independent evaluations estimate that implementing these plans would widen France’s deficit to between 3% and 7% of GDP, raising significant concerns about fiscal sustainability.<\/span><\/p>\n
Rising Deficits and Economic Slowdown<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n
The fragility of France’s public finances has intensified. By late 2024, the public deficit surpassed 6% of GDP, far exceeding the government\u2019s 5.1% forecast. This spike stems from sluggish economic growth, declining tax revenues, and weakened household consumption due to earlier inflation-control measures. A slowdown in corporate investment has further constrained tax receipts.<\/span><\/p>\n
Compounding the issue, rising interest rates have increased the cost of servicing France\u2019s substantial debt. Since 2019, debt levels climbed by an additional 10 percentage points, reaching concerning heights. Servicing this debt now consumes a larger share of the budget, limiting the government\u2019s fiscal flexibility to stimulate growth or reduce spending.<\/span><\/p>\n
The trend of the spread in four European countries<\/b><\/h4>\nNote: the figure shows the trend of the differential between the 10-year interest rates on public debt of four European countries compared to Germany. Source: report by the Haut conseil des finances publiques.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
The evolution of the debt-to-GDP ratio in the euro area<\/b><\/h4>\nSource: report by the Haut conseil des finances publiques (The medium-term structural budget plans of Germany, Spain, and Portugal had not been published at the time the report was drafted).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Pressure from the European Union<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n
The mounting deficit has triggered scrutiny from the European Union. In June 2024, the European Commission initiated an excessive deficit procedure against France, intensifying pressure for fiscal reform. The Commission urges France to modernize its labor market and improve economic competitiveness.<\/span><\/p>\n
However, reforms enacted under President Macron, such as the controversial pension reform of March 2023, have had limited impact. The retirement age was raised from 62 to 64, sparking nationwide protests. Although the reform is expected to save 13 billion euros annually by 2030, the populist parties\u2019 pledge to restore retirement at 60 leaves little room for further cost-saving reforms.<\/span><\/p>\n
The Challenges of the 2025 Budget<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n
The appointment of Michel Barnier as Prime Minister on September 5, 2024, marks an effort to restore stability. Supported by a fragile coalition of <\/span>macronist<\/span><\/i> deputies (<\/span>Renaissance<\/span><\/i>) and <\/span>Les R\u00e9publicains<\/span><\/i> (LR), Barnier faces the daunting task of passing the 2025 budget law. The proposed budget aims to reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP in 2025, with a longer-term target of 3% by 2029.<\/span><\/p>\n
The government plans 60 billion euros in cuts through public sector job reductions and targeted tax hikes. Notable measures include surtaxes on corporate income for large companies and high-earning households. However, these proposals have sparked resistance both within Barnier\u2019s coalition and from the RN, which refuses to support the budget.<\/span><\/p>\n
Internal coalition tensions further undermine Barnier\u2019s position. Divisions persist between <\/span>macronist<\/span><\/i> deputies and LR members, particularly over unpopular tax hikes, such as those on electricity. The inability to dissolve the Assembly before June 2025 only exacerbates the government\u2019s fragility, leaving fiscal policy vulnerable to political maneuvering.<\/span><\/p>\n
A Volatile Outlook<\/b><\/h3>\n
France\u2019s fiscal outlook remains highly uncertain as political fragmentation stalls meaningful reforms. With populist strategies dominating the agenda and EU institutions pressing for fiscal discipline, the government must navigate a precarious path toward stability. As the 2027 presidential election looms, political posturing and fragile alliances threaten to derail efforts to restore sustainable public finances.<\/span><\/p>\n
In this volatile climate, France faces mounting pressure from both the European Union and financial markets to chart a credible fiscal course amid persistent economic challenges.<\/span><\/p>\n
Pierre Cahuc is a professor of economics at the Sciences Po institute in Paris.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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