Is there a link between school dropout rates and the rise in juvenile crime? Both are expressions of the distress among boys and girls that has significantly increased after the pandemic. Schools and especially teachers play a key role in addressing the problem. New research at the intersection of economics and psychology can indicate how to do so.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

We await the publication of school dropout statistics with the same apprehension as an uncertain medical diagnosis. In 2022, the percentage of young people in Italy aged 18 to 24 with only a middle school certificate, who therefore did not attain a high school qualification, was 11.5%. In 2021, it was 12.7%, so a doctor might say “it’s improving.” However, it still means that one in ten students finishes their education without a diploma. This data from Eurostat measures what we define as school dropout, that is, the premature abandonment of the education pathway (see the first figure). The feeling of improvement fades quickly if we look at another type of dropout called “implicit” dropout, which raises the question, “Do those who stay in school acquire adequate skills?” Each year, INVALSI, the National Institute for the Evaluation of the Education and Training System, compares the acquired competencies with what we expect students to have at the end of each educational cycle. In 2023, 87% of students graduating from secondary school not only failed to reach the educational goals of the fifth year but demonstrated at most the competencies of a middle school level.<\/span><\/p>\n

School Dropout and NEET: A Path to Progressive Isolation<\/b><\/h3>\n

In light of these data, what will the future of these young people look like in terms of their entry into the labour market and their participation in civil society? The statistics on NEETs (see the second histogram), i.e., young people aged 15 to 29 who are not working and not engaged in any educational or training activities, show a sad symmetry with those on school dropout. The four regions with the highest percentage of young people with only a middle school certificate are also those leading in terms of young people not participating in the labour market. What factors explain this phenomenon and why are there so many differences among the various Italian regions?<\/span><\/p>\n

Percentage of Young People Aged 18 to 24 with Only a Middle School Certificate in 2022 by Italian Region<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Source: Eurostat, Openpolis.<\/span><\/p>\n

Percentage of Young People Aged 15 to 29 Not Employed and Not in Education or Training (NEET)<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Source: ISTAT data for 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

Family Background and Youth Aspirations<\/b><\/h3>\n

INVALSI also considers the socio-economic condition of the students’ families through the ESCs (Economic Social and Cultural Status) indicator. The index aggregates three components that respectively evaluate the parents’ employment status and education level and the possession of certain material goods by the students (a quiet place to study, a computer, or a desk, for example). The latest INVALSI report highlights that among students from more vulnerable socio-economic backgrounds (low ESCs), the percentage of those at risk of implicit dropout is double that of their peers from less fragile backgrounds.<\/span><\/p>\n

But why can’t schools offer equal opportunities to all? The research “Tomorrow (Im)possible” by Save the Children offers a possible explanation: the mechanism that anthropologists and economists define as the “aspirations trap.” The study, published in May 2024, involved almost 1,500 boys and girls aged 15 and 16 from all over Italy who responded to a questionnaire about their socio-economic conditions and aspirations. Seven essential goods or activities that young people should have access to for their well-being were identified for the survey, and those lacking at least four of them were considered to be in a state of material deprivation. The research estimated that almost one in ten adolescents aged 15 to 16 is in a state of material deprivation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Socio-economic vulnerabilities not only affect the present situation, resulting in the failure to obtain a qualification, but also cast a shadow over young people’s aspirations. They limit the freedom one should have when answering the question, “What do you want to be when you grow up?” Among the 15- and 16-year-olds interviewed who are in material deprivation, one in four answered that they will not finish high school and will go to work (among those not in material deprivation, the figure is one in eight); only one in two (54.7%) believes they will achieve what they desire in life (three out of four in the other group); two out of three fear they will not find a decent job where they are treated well and not exploited (one in three among those not in deprivation).<\/span><\/p>\n

Increasing Psychological Distress Among Adolescents<\/b><\/h3>\n

Regardless of economic condition, more than 40% of those interviewed associate their future with negative feelings of anxiety, fear, and mistrust (as documented in the article by David Blanchflower and Alex Bryson in the third issue of <\/span>Eco<\/span><\/i>). This distress, undoubtedly exacerbated by the social isolation related to the pandemic, is a strong cry for help from adolescents. They say it themselves: among the measures to limit youth deprivation, after economic support for families, they cite free psychological support for boys and girls. When listing the challenges their generation will face in the future, about a third of the respondents (30.6%) include loneliness and psychological distress.<\/span><\/p>\n

The age group between 14 and 19 years has suffered the most severe mental health consequences in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic. Figure 3 shows the evolution of the ISTAT mental health index between 2016 and 2023 in different age groups: it groups indicators of anxiety, depression, loss of behavioural or emotional control, and psychological well-being. While it is true that the average level of psychological well-being decreases with age, the marked reduction in psychological well-being triggered by the pandemic among 14- to 19-year-olds is evident. This decline, unlike what happens for other age groups, persists even two years later.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mental Health Index by Age Group<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n

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Source: ISTAT BES (Equitable and Sustainable Well-being) Report. The mental health index is a measure of psychological distress obtained from the synthesis of the scores totalled by each individual aged 14 and over to five questions extracted from the SF36 questionnaire (36-Item Short Form Survey) referring to the four main dimensions of mental health (anxiety, depression, loss of behavioural or emotional control, and psychological well-being). The index ranges from 0 to 100, with better psychological well-being conditions increasing as the index value rises.<\/span><\/p>\n

Increasing Crimes Committed by Minors<\/b><\/h3>\n

These data also provide a lens to read the recent increase in the number of reports related to minors under 18 years old reported or arrested by the police (figure 4). As pedagogist Andrea Marchesi stated in his hearing in the Senate after some incidents of violence against teachers (March 15, 2023), these cases “seem to indicate a cry for help from those who already feel excluded from everything.” Since 2020, crimes related to thefts and robberies have started to rise again, as have those related to intentional injuries, brawls, and assaults, which were previously stable or decreasing. It is not exclusively about “baby gangs” but rather a deeper distress and a sense of exclusion that runs along the invisible fault line separating the suburbs from the city centre. According to the words of the director of the penitentiary police and the educational community of the Nisida Juvenile Penal Institute (reported in the Report on Juvenile Crime in Italy published by the Ministry of the Interior), “a picture emerges of young people in desperate search of an identity, with an exacerbated need for visibility and consideration in a state of great restlessness; all elements that testify to a pressing call for help and consideration directed at the adult world, pushing them to commit extreme and dangerous actions.”<\/span><\/p>\n

In a recent research project within schools in Naples and its province, we seek to identify the factors characterising young people who are more likely to break rules, for example, by cheating in a game. These are young people with low trust in institutions, but even more importantly, are students who show a higher sense of exclusion and unhappiness than their peers. They are those who do not find empathetic support from the adults of reference: at home \u2013 where socio-economic fragility sometimes tightens its grip on single-parent families or those with only one working parent \u2013 and at school where they struggle to establish a relationship with teachers whose energy is often absorbed by administrative tasks.<\/span><\/p>\n

Reports and Arrests of Minors Under 18 by the Police<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n

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Source: ISTAT “We care”.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Role of Schools and Teachers<\/b><\/h3>\n

But what is the cure for this distress? We asked teachers and educators from associations operating in the most fragile contexts: the answer is complex, involving the happiness and self-esteem of young people, and requiring a composite intervention to improve or rebuild the infrastructure of the educational community. The project will involve families, educators, and above all schools and teachers.<\/span><\/p>\n

Before choosing which policies to implement, we must decide on the starting point. Don Milani wrote it in large letters on the wall of his school: “I care” \u2013 “I am concerned” or “I care about it.”<\/span><\/p>\n

If we want the situation to improve, we must first listen to the cry of distress from the young people and make them understand that we care about their frustration. There is no better antidote to the sense of exclusion than listening to those who isolate themselves. As stated by the Authority for Children and Adolescents in the 2023 Report to Parliament: “Children must be listened to: […] And this is not about formal, impersonal listening that responds to a mere duty. Listening must be authentic, active, and productive of effects.”<\/span><\/p>\n

This requires concrete choices: dedicating time and even material resources. It means proposing to integrate school hours with afternoon activities to allow young people to spend more time at school. It means reversing the reduction in investments in education, which are currently lower than the European average (4.1% of Italian GDP compared to the 4.8% average in Europe, according to Save the Children). But it also means recognising the essential role played by teachers in the emotional education of students and providing them not only with teaching skills but also with tools to cultivate an effective relationship with boys and girls: job insecurity, salaries among the lowest in Europe (an Italian teacher has an average salary less than half that of a German colleague, according to the OECD “Education at a Glance” Report 2023), advanced age (almost 60% of high school teachers are over fifty, again according to the OECD Report), curricula focused more on subject knowledge than on pedagogy, and bureaucratic tasks erode teachers’ motivation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Economic literature has highlighted the cause-and-effect link between school attendance and the reduction of crime rates both in youth and adulthood. It has also emphasised that it is not simply school attendance that allows for a reduction in crime risk, but rather the need for the educational experience to be of adequate quality. In this perspective, teachers play a key role. Don Milani expressed it by saying that they must “see in the eyes of the young people the beautiful things they will see clearly tomorrow and that we see only confusedly today.” Psychological research highlights how relationships between students and teachers and a positive classroom climate can foster students’ motivation and reduce the risk of school dropout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bringing teachers back to discovering the “beautiful things in the eyes of the young people” is a first step in cultivating the trust and self-esteem of adolescents. How to do this? In a multidisciplinary spirit, economic research is also seeking answers through evaluating projects to enhance the teaching workforce, for example, by offering psychological support to teachers for a more serene interaction with students and colleagues, opportunities for neuroscientific training on children’s and adolescents’ behaviour, awareness courses on biases towards young people, and methods to correct them. If the results are positive, extending these projects on a larger scale could be an effective contribution not only to reducing school dropout and improving skills but also to improving young people’s well-being, self-esteem, and trust in the future and in school.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bio<\/b><\/em><\/p>\n

Selene Ghisolfi is a development economist working on the impact evaluation of policies against poverty, including educational poverty, in fragile contexts. She is a researcher and lecturer at Universit\u00e0 Cattolica del Sacro Cuore affiliated with the Laboratory for Effective Anti-Poverty Policies (LEAP) and the Social Inclusion Lab at Universit\u00e0 Bocconi.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Giovanna Marcolongo is an economist and researcher at the CLEAN Unit (Crime and Law Economic Analysis) of the Centro Baffi-CAReFin at Universit\u00e0 Bocconi.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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